Greater Phoenix Market Conditions

Greater Phoenix Market Conditions

I’m always extremely cautious about using real estate “averages”, as they can and do often skew the true picture of individual communities and areas. Nevertheless, there are a couple of points that are worth noting in the above charts.

It’s interesting that normally at this time of year we experience an increase in listings – and yet the past 2 months has seen a decrease in listings. Anybody care to speculate on the reason(s) for this anomaly?

The next observation is that the greater Phoenix market is holding fairly steadily in the number of Active listings as well as sales.

Additionally, at roughly 4.5 months inventory, the greater Phoenix market appears to be showing some consistent stabilization.  As always, time will tell.

NOTE:  The information and statistics contained in the above charts are deemed reliable, but not guaranteed. If you’re contemplating a major financial decision regarding residential real estate, please do yourself a huge favor and consult with a reputable real estate broker, attorney and/or accountant.

I have a personal conviction that real estate should not be micro-analyzed, so I’m electing to not draw any conclusions or speculations from the latest “averages.” It’s clear that prices, on the average, are on the rise. Other than that, all indicators point to a bottoming of the residential real estate market in greater Phoenix.

As always, the information and statistics contained in the above charts are deemed reliable, but not guaranteed. If you’re contemplating a major financial decision regarding residential real estate, please do yourself a huge favor and consult with a reputable real estate broker, attorney and accountant.

Take a look at the charts below, courtesy of the Arizona Regional MLS.  They provide a quick snapshot of the greater Phoenix real estate market for the past year, with particular interest placed on the period of November 2008 thru November 2009.

On this first graph, notice the upturn the past few months in Active listings.  Part of that is due to the seasonal nature of the greater Phoenix market.  Others would speculate that it’s an increase in bank owned listings.  But notice the recent downturn in new listings, seemingly running contrary to the uptrend in total listings (inventory).  What’s your take on that observation?  I’m wondering if it’s not a result of the upper end of this market, particularly above $350K, where prices are continuing to decline and properties are staying on the market considerably longer than the lower end of the market.

One other note: sales have been relatively consistent and stable, on the average, for the past 8-9 months.  Seasonality would predict that we’ll see a slight downturn in the next few months, so it will be interesting to watch it play out.

On the following chart, notice that total inventory just up-ticked to slightly over 5 months – coinciding with the increase in total inventory.  What I’m really watching for is any hint of an avalanche of bank owed listings that many people are predicting.  I have my personal doubts about this so-called ‘shadow inventory’ of bank owned homes, and even greater doubts that the banks will decide to dump them in one fell swoop.  And even though I’m not EVEN a fan of banks, or their real estate acumen, I still have a very difficult time believing they will shoot themselves in the foot and dump all of their residential properties onto the market in one lump.  Your thoughts?

As always, the information and statistics contained in the above charts are deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.    If you’re contemplating a major financial decision regarding residential real estate, please do yourself a huge favor and consult with a reputable real estate broker, attorney and accountant.