Gilbert Real Estate Blog
~ by Randy Hooker of Dreamcatcher Realty
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Exceptionally Low Interest Rates for an Extended Period Of Time?
Yesterday the Fed announced that they would like to see ”exceptionally low interest rates for an extended period of time.” They have committed to purchasing long term securities that directly impact mortgage interest rates. Experts see a need to help our economy recover and low interest rates are one tool in the Fed shed for promoting economic activity.
The last time the Fed did this was in early 2009, right around the time interest rates for long term mortgages went into free-fall! Rates dropped because the Fed’s purchasing presence spiked both the demand and price of mortgage bonds which directly lowers mortgage rates.
This latest development will likely provide reinforced support for what are already historically low mortgage rates. It may even provide enough pressure to push rates a bit lower. I don’t expect the dramatic decrease we saw when the Fed initiated this type of buying in early 2009. Overall, I do expect our interest rate market to flirt with historically low levels for some time.
Stay tuned, as I am sure there is more to come.
Greater Phoenix Real Estate ~ May 2010 vs. May 2009
Courtesy of the Arizona Regional MLS, the below two charts offer up a quick overview of the current market conditions in the Valley of the Sun. Whether you’re into comparing consecutive month over month stats (like May 2010 vs. April 2010), or year over year (like May 2010 vs. May 2009), the charts are provided to help us grasp the overall picture.
Greater Phoenix Market Conditions
Greater Phoenix Market Conditions
I’m always extremely cautious about using real estate “averages”, as they can and do often skew the true picture of individual communities and areas. Nevertheless, there are a couple of points that are worth noting in the above charts.
It’s interesting that normally at this time of year we experience an increase in listings – and yet the past 2 months has seen a decrease in listings. Anybody care to speculate on the reason(s) for this anomaly?
The next observation is that the greater Phoenix market is holding fairly steadily in the number of Active listings as well as sales.
Additionally, at roughly 4.5 months inventory, the greater Phoenix market appears to be showing some consistent stabilization. As always, time will tell.
NOTE: The information and statistics contained in the above charts are deemed reliable, but not guaranteed. If you’re contemplating a major financial decision regarding residential real estate, please do yourself a huge favor and consult with a reputable real estate broker, attorney and/or accountant.
Greater Phoenix Real Estate ~ December 2009 vs. December 2008
Here ya go, boys and girls. Take a look at the charts below, courtesy of the Arizona Regional MLS. They provide a quick overview of the greater Phoenix real estate market for the past year, with particular interest and focus on the period of December 2009 as compared to December 2008.
I have a personal conviction that real estate should not be micro-analyzed, so I’m electing to not draw any conclusions or speculations from the latest “averages.” It’s clear that prices, on the average, are on the rise. Other than that, all indicators point to a bottoming of the residential real estate market in greater Phoenix.
As always, the information and statistics contained in the above charts are deemed reliable, but not guaranteed. If you’re contemplating a major financial decision regarding residential real estate, please do yourself a huge favor and consult with a reputable real estate broker, attorney and accountant.
Greater Phoenix Real Estate ~ Snapshot of Current Market Conditions
Most of you know that I’m not a big fan of mathematical ‘averages’, since they can really distort the truth about a specific market segment. Once in a while, however, ‘averages’ can provide a quick overview of basic trends in certain markets and areas.
Take a look at the charts below, courtesy of the Arizona Regional MLS. They provide a quick snapshot of the greater Phoenix real estate market for the past year, with particular interest placed on the period of November 2008 thru November 2009.
On this first graph, notice the upturn the past few months in Active listings. Part of that is due to the seasonal nature of the greater Phoenix market. Others would speculate that it’s an increase in bank owned listings. But notice the recent downturn in new listings, seemingly running contrary to the uptrend in total listings (inventory). What’s your take on that observation? I’m wondering if it’s not a result of the upper end of this market, particularly above $350K, where prices are continuing to decline and properties are staying on the market considerably longer than the lower end of the market.
One other note: sales have been relatively consistent and stable, on the average, for the past 8-9 months. Seasonality would predict that we’ll see a slight downturn in the next few months, so it will be interesting to watch it play out.
On the following chart, notice that total inventory just up-ticked to slightly over 5 months – coinciding with the increase in total inventory. What I’m really watching for is any hint of an avalanche of bank owed listings that many people are predicting. I have my personal doubts about this so-called ’shadow inventory’ of bank owned homes, and even greater doubts that the banks will decide to dump them in one fell swoop. And even though I’m not EVEN a fan of banks, or their real estate acumen, I still have a very difficult time believing they will shoot themselves in the foot and dump all of their residential properties onto the market in one lump. Your thoughts?
As always, the information and statistics contained in the above charts are deemed reliable, but not guaranteed. If you’re contemplating a major financial decision regarding residential real estate, please do yourself a huge favor and consult with a reputable real estate broker, attorney and accountant.
Greater Phoenix Real Estate ~ Snapshot of Current Market Conditions ~ 10/6/2009
Take a look… below are a couple of graphs that are worth checking out. They provide a quick picture of the greater Phoenix real estate market for the past year, September 2008 thru September 2009.
On this first graph, notice the significant drop in Active listings over the past 6 months. Then take note of the increase in Sold listings over the past 6 months.
On this next chart, you can easily see that we’ve gone from a 13 month supply of inventory (listings) in November 2008 to less than 5 months of inventory for the past 5 months.
On the following graph, do you see the upturn in average prices in the greater Phoenix market over the past 6 months? Bottom line >>> the laws of supply and demand are still as powerful as ever. Significantly change supply OR demand, and we’ll always see and feel the effect. Change BOTH supply and demand, and we’ll see and feel MAJOR effects. Where will we be 6 months from now? My crystal 8 Ball says, “Undecided”.
The other point I’ll make is that these graphs and charts are based on ‘averages’ in the greater Phoenix real estate market. ‘Averages’ based on such a huge area can really skew an accurate picture of an individual town or neighborhood – especially if you’re attempting to project future trends. If you have need of similar information for your subdivision or city, just let me know.
All information, graphs and charts are derived from the Arizona Regional MLS, and while believed to be reliable, cannot be guaranteed.
